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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rapid Vienna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sturm Graz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat Sturm Graz 3-1 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.98 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.19 / defence 0.88 against Sturm Graz attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 55% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 19%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 42%, Sturm Graz 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Rapid Vienna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights