Rapid Vienna 0-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host Lask Linz at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 March 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Rapid Vienna — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Allianz Stadion this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Rapid Vienna are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Rapid Vienna in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lask Linz in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 57% versus Lask Linz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 50% | Lask Linz 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.14 xG and Lask Linz 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.094 / defence 1.025 | Lask Linz attack 0.905 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Lask Linz's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Rapid Vienna games / 44 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 33% | Lask Linz 29%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Lask Linz 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Rapid Vienna 60% | Lask Linz 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 33% | Lask Linz 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.14 / Lask Linz 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.094 / def 1.025 | Lask Linz attack 0.905 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Lask Linz xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Rapid Vienna 0 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 39% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
39%
2.58
33%
3.05
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.08
0.94
Lask Linz xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.94 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 54 games, going 20W 15D 19L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 1.65 PPG from 54 outings (23W 20D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.39 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 10W 9D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.41 points per game from 27 outings (8W 14D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.48 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 20W 15D 19L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 23W 20D 11L in their last 54 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Lask Linz away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.44 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
6
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 2, Lask Linz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 63%, Lask Linz 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rapid Vienna) and 33% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Rapid Vienna's games and 59% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 33% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rapid Vienna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz finished level at 0-0 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.14 xG and Lask Linz 0.94 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rapid Vienna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lask Linz landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 1.02 against Lask Linz attack 0.91 / defence 0.78, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 33% | Lask Linz 29%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 50%, Lask Linz 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Lask Linz's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.39 PPG, Lask Linz 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.