TSV Hartberg 0-3 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Championship Round - 2 as TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 5W 3D 2L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PROfertil ARENA. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at PROfertil ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.60 (Rapid Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for TSV Hartberg, 0 for Rapid Vienna and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Rapid Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 60% | Rapid Vienna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 0.97 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.964 / defence 0.927 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.197 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Rapid Vienna's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 30% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 38%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Rapid Vienna 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 40% | Rapid Vienna 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 30% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG TSV Hartberg 0.97 / Rapid Vienna 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.964 / def 0.927 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.197 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Rapid Vienna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 3 Rapid Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 30% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
Record (2 meetings): TSV Hartberg 2W | Draws 0 | Rapid Vienna 0W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
30%
3.38
33%
3.06
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.09
1.12
Rapid Vienna xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.9 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.12 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 13D 24L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.38 PPG from 55 outings (20W 16D 19L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.22 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 10W 7D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 1.33 points per game from 27 outings (10W 6D 11L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.60 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 13D 24L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 20W 16D 19L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Rapid Vienna away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.37 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Rapid Vienna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 52%, Rapid Vienna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (TSV Hartberg) and 48% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 52% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 48% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 0-3 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 0-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Championship Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 0.97 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.12 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Rapid Vienna outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.20 / defence 0.75, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 30% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 38%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 60%, Rapid Vienna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.22 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.