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Shock result as Grazer AK defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK beat Rapid Vienna 1-2 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.68 xG and Grazer AK 0.84 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Grazer AK outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Grazer AK attack 0.63 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 57% | Draw 24% | Grazer AK 19%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Grazer AK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 53%, Grazer AK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Grazer AK's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Grazer AK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights