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Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lask Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Lask Linz 0-2 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.63 xG and Sturm Graz 1.24 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Sturm Graz attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 44% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 26%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 59%, Sturm Graz 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lask Linz's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.78 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights