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Stalemate at Lask Linz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz and SCR Altach finished level at 0-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Relegation Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.85 xG and SCR Altach 1.19 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 1.9 short of their projected output. SCR Altach landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against SCR Altach attack 0.98 / defence 1.18, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 50% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 22%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 49%, SCR Altach 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lask Linz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SCR Altach's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights