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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lask Linz face SCR Altach.

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Analysis

SCR Altach make the trip to Raiffeisen Arena to face Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 23 May 2025 at 18:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Lask Linz have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Lask Linz's home record at Raiffeisen Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena.

SCR Altach (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

SCR Altach's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Lask Linz's favour (2.20 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Across 7 previous meetings, Lask Linz are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Lask Linz winning.

The historical record gives Lask Linz a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 51% versus SCR Altach 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 49% | SCR Altach 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.85 xG and SCR Altach 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.981 / defence 1.012 | SCR Altach attack 0.976 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.201. Data: 44 Lask Linz games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lask Linz 50% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 22%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 4.55. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lask Linz 50% | SCR Altach 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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