Lask Linz 0-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lask Linz face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SCR Altach make the trip to Raiffeisen Arena to face Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 23 May 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lask Linz have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lask Linz's home record at Raiffeisen Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena.
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
SCR Altach's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Lask Linz's favour (2.20 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Lask Linz are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Lask Linz winning.
The historical record gives Lask Linz a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 51% versus SCR Altach 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 49% | SCR Altach 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.85 xG and SCR Altach 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.981 / defence 1.012 | SCR Altach attack 0.976 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.201. Data: 44 Lask Linz games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 50% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 22%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 4.55. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lask Linz 50% | SCR Altach 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Friday 23 May 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 50% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Lask Linz 1.85 / SCR Altach 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.981 / def 1.012 | SCR Altach attack 0.976 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.19
SCR Altach xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs SCR Altach kick off?
Lask Linz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 23 May 2025 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Lask Linz 0 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach part of?
Lask Linz vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 50% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lask Linz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
Record (6 meetings): Lask Linz 4W | Draws 1 | SCR Altach 1W.
What form are Lask Linz and SCR Altach in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lask Linz's attack rating (0.98) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.98x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
50%
1.98
28%
3.60
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.04
1.19
SCR Altach xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
3%
29.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.19 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lask Linz's recent record stands at 30W 15D 18L from 63 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 11W 23D 29L across 63 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lask Linz have managed 16W 7D 8L from 31 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 6W 8D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lask Linz are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.89 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Current Season
SCR Altach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 30W 15D 18L in their last 63 games (1.67 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 11W 23D 29L in their last 63 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or SCR Altach away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.77 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lask Linz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 3-0 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 6, SCR Altach have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Lask Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 45%, SCR Altach 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lask Linz) and 48% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; SCR Altach in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 45% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lask Linz's recent games and 48% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lask Linz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz and SCR Altach finished level at 0-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Relegation Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.85 xG and SCR Altach 1.19 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 1.9 short of their projected output. SCR Altach landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against SCR Altach attack 0.98 / defence 1.18, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 50% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 22%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 49%, SCR Altach 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SCR Altach's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.