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Dominant Grazer AK run riot with a 4-0 hammering of WSG Wattens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK beat WSG Wattens 4-0 at Merkur-Arena, Relegation Group - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.43 xG and WSG Wattens 1.26 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Grazer AK beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against WSG Wattens attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 40% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 33%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 54%, WSG Wattens 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.95 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights