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Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Grazer AK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC beat Grazer AK 1-3 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.12 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.12 / defence 0.93, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 28% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 46%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 52%, Wolfsberger AC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Grazer AK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights