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Stalemate at Grazer AK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg finished level at 0-0 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.30 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.84 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grazer AK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.90 / defence 1.22 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.20 / defence 1.08, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 27% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 50%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 54%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights