Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg – Match Report

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Dominant TSV Hartberg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Grazer AK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat Grazer AK 0-3 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.68 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.43 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Grazer AK fell 1.7 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.97 / defence 1.38 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 15/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 43% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 32%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 60%, TSV Hartberg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.80 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights