Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grazer AK's attack at 0.97x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.87x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 15/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
43%
2.32
25%
4.07
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
3.12
1.43
TSV Hartberg xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.43 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.