🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Grazer AK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Grazer AK 0-3 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.17 xG and Sturm Graz 1.70 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Grazer AK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Sturm Graz attack 1.16 / defence 0.85, drawn from 26/25 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 25% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 48%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 51%, Sturm Graz 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights