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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sat 30 Aug 2025

18:30

Venue

Merkur-Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Austria

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sturm Graz Win

25%

Grazer AK

4.01

27%

Draw

3.74

48%

Sturm Graz

2.07

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.3%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.7%

Away win

1 – 2

9.6%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.17

Grazer AK xG

Total xG

2.86

1.70

Sturm Graz xG

25%
27%
48%
Grazer AKDrawSturm Graz

4.01

25%

Home win

3.74

27%

Draw

2.07

48%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.74

42%

BTTS No

2.36

Clean Sheet

18%

Grazer AK

5.45

31%

Sturm Graz

3.22

Win to Nil

5%

Grazer AK

21.83

15%

Sturm Graz

6.65

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.7 9.7 8.2 4.6 2.0 0.7
1 6.7 11.3 9.6 5.4 2.3 0.8
2 3.9 6.6 5.6 3.2 1.3 0.5
3 1.5 2.6 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2
4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.168
λ Away (xG) 1.695
Total xG 2.863
League avg home goals 1.395
League avg away goals 1.409
Grazer AK attack strength 0.984
Grazer AK defence strength 1.041
Sturm Graz attack strength 1.155
Sturm Graz defence strength 0.851
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 26 / 25