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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grazer AK and SCR Altach share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK and SCR Altach finished level at 2-2 at Merkur-Arena, Relegation Group - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.41 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against SCR Altach attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 46% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 26%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 55%, SCR Altach 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

SCR Altach's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.98 PPG, SCR Altach 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights