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Grazer AK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SCR Altach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK beat SCR Altach 3-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 0.91 xG and SCR Altach 1.13 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Grazer AK beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.79 / defence 0.99 against SCR Altach attack 0.80 / defence 0.89, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 29% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 41%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Grazer AK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 51%, SCR Altach 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

SCR Altach's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.79 PPG, SCR Altach 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights