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Poisson rates SCR Altach at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs SCR Altach encounter.

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Full Analysis

Merkur-Arena plays host to Grazer AK versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 1 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Grazer AK (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Merkur-Arena, Grazer AK have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.

SCR Altach have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, SCR Altach have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. SCR Altach are 0.60 PPG clear of Grazer AK in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 2W to 0W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 58% versus SCR Altach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 51% | SCR Altach 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 0.91 xG and SCR Altach 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.793 / defence 0.986 | SCR Altach attack 0.802 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.427. Grazer AK's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Grazer AK games / 33 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 29% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 41%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | SCR Altach 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

Grazer AK dominate the H2H record, yet SCR Altach are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 50% | SCR Altach 20% BTTS from recent games.

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