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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg finished level at 1-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.22 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.52 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.14 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 31% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 44%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 58%, Red Bull Salzburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights