Grazer AK 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Grazer AK welcome Rapid Vienna to Merkur Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Grazer AK have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK at Merkur Arena this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rapid Vienna are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Grazer AK in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Rapid Vienna in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 80% and Rapid Vienna 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 60% | Rapid Vienna 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.04 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.730 / defence 1.250 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.857 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.208. Grazer AK's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Grazer AK games / 32 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 30% | Draw 28% | Rapid Vienna 42%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Rapid Vienna 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Grazer AK 75% | Rapid Vienna 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 30% | Draw 28% | Rapid Vienna 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Grazer AK 1.04 / Rapid Vienna 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.730 / def 1.250 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.857 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Rapid Vienna xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Grazer AK 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 30% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Grazer AK's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.59
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.34
1.29
Rapid Vienna xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.29 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 0.40 PPG on a 0W 4D 6L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games, 2.10 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rapid Vienna are the form team by 1.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grazer AK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rapid Vienna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Grazer AK are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 games (0.40 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 0.50 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Grazer AK or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grazer AK have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Rapid Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grazer AK's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Grazer AK
2
Draws
1
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna?
From 4 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 1, Rapid Vienna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Rapid Vienna 1-2 Grazer AK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 75%, Rapid Vienna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Grazer AK) and 25% (Rapid Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Grazer AK's games and 50% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Grazer AK's recent games and 25% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.04 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.29 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.73 / defence 1.25 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.86 / defence 0.87, drawn from 10/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 30% | Draw 28% | Rapid Vienna 42%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 60%, Rapid Vienna 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.