🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Grazer AK and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK and Austria Vienna finished level at 2-2 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.39 xG and Austria Vienna 1.51 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Austria Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 32% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 37%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 53%, Austria Vienna 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights