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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Arena, Relegation Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.42 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.19 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.75 / defence 1.24 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.80 / defence 1.19, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 39% | Draw 32% | Austria Klagenfurt 29%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 57%, Austria Klagenfurt 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.79 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights