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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Grazer AK host Austria Klagenfurt at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 May 2025 at 18:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Grazer AK stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Grazer AK's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.80. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grazer AK at 0.60 PPG versus Austria Klagenfurt's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Grazer AK have won 0, Austria Klagenfurt 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Grazer AK in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 61% versus Austria Klagenfurt 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 57% | Austria Klagenfurt 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.42 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.748 / defence 1.243 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.798 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Grazer AK's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Grazer AK games / 44 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 39% | Draw 32% | Austria Klagenfurt 29%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Austria Klagenfurt 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grazer AK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Grazer AK 50% | Austria Klagenfurt 50%.

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