Grazer AK 1-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grazer AK host Austria Klagenfurt at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 May 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grazer AK stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Grazer AK's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.80. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grazer AK at 0.60 PPG versus Austria Klagenfurt's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Grazer AK have won 0, Austria Klagenfurt 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 61% versus Austria Klagenfurt 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 57% | Austria Klagenfurt 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.42 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.748 / defence 1.243 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.798 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Grazer AK's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Grazer AK games / 44 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 39% | Draw 32% | Austria Klagenfurt 29%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Austria Klagenfurt 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grazer AK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Grazer AK 50% | Austria Klagenfurt 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 39% | Draw 32% | Austria Klagenfurt 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Grazer AK 1.42 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.748 / def 1.243 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.798 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Austria Klagenfurt xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 2 May 2025 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Grazer AK 1 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 39% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (3 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 1 | Austria Klagenfurt 2W.
What form are Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Grazer AK's attack at 0.75x the league average against Austria Klagenfurt's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
39%
2.54
32%
3.12
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.61
1.19
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.19 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grazer AK's recent record stands at 4W 10D 14L from 28 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Austria Klagenfurt, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 15L across 28 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grazer AK on 0.79 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Grazer AK have managed 2W 5D 7L from 14 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record stands at 3W 2D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Grazer AK are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.11 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Current Season
Austria Klagenfurt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 4W 10D 14L in their last 28 games (0.79 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Grazer AK's home record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 0.79 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Grazer AK's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Grazer AK
2
Draws
2
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 4 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 0, Austria Klagenfurt have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Grazer AK 1-1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grazer AK see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 57%, Austria Klagenfurt 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Grazer AK and 64% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grazer AK have failed to score in 36% of games; Austria Klagenfurt in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Austria Klagenfurt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Grazer AK's recent matches and 43% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Grazer AK's matches and 64% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Arena, Relegation Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.42 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.19 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.75 / defence 1.24 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.80 / defence 1.19, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 39% | Draw 32% | Austria Klagenfurt 29%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 57%, Austria Klagenfurt 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.79 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.