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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC BW Linz run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wolfsberger AC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC BW Linz beat Wolfsberger AC 3-0 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Group - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.70 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.32 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 54%, Wolfsberger AC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.02 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights