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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC BW Linz defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC BW Linz beat Wolfsberger AC 2-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.34 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.49 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.08 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 34% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 41%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC BW Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 52%, Wolfsberger AC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with FC BW Linz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights