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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC BW Linz run riot with a 4-1 hammering of TSV Hartberg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC BW Linz beat TSV Hartberg 4-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.19 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.82 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 37% | TSV Hartberg 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC BW Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 51%, TSV Hartberg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.17 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights