FC BW Linz 4-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as FC BW Linz take on TSV Hartberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
TSV Hartberg make the trip to Hofmann Personal Stadion to face FC BW Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC BW Linz have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Hofmann Personal Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FC BW Linz. A 0.60 PPG lead over TSV Hartberg (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC BW Linz, 2 for TSV Hartberg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 55% versus TSV Hartberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 51% | TSV Hartberg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.19 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.924 / defence 1.080 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.816 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.210. Data: 43 FC BW Linz games / 43 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 37% | TSV Hartberg 29%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | TSV Hartberg 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
TSV Hartberg lead the H2H ledger, but FC BW Linz carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 50% | TSV Hartberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 37% | TSV Hartberg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 50% | xG FC BW Linz 1.19 / TSV Hartberg 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.924 / def 1.080 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.816 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.07
TSV Hartberg xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
FC BW Linz 4 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 35% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (3 meetings): FC BW Linz 0W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 2W.
What form are FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 0.92x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.82x) against FC BW Linz's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
37%
2.73
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.26
1.07
TSV Hartberg xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.07 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC BW Linz come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 14D 23L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.30 PPG from 53 outings (18W 15D 20L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for FC BW Linz against 1.30 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC BW Linz's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.23 points per game from 26 outings (8W 8D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.28 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 15D 20L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.46 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.23 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 4-1 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 6 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-1 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 54%, TSV Hartberg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC BW Linz) and 62% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 31%; TSV Hartberg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 54% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC BW Linz's matches and 62% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC BW Linz run riot with a 4-1 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat TSV Hartberg 4-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.19 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.82 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 37% | TSV Hartberg 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC BW Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 51%, TSV Hartberg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.17 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.