🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as FC BW Linz take on TSV Hartberg.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

TSV Hartberg make the trip to Hofmann Personal Stadion to face FC BW Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

FC BW Linz have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Hofmann Personal Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward FC BW Linz. A 0.60 PPG lead over TSV Hartberg (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC BW Linz, 2 for TSV Hartberg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 55% versus TSV Hartberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 51% | TSV Hartberg 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.19 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.924 / defence 1.080 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.816 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.210. Data: 43 FC BW Linz games / 43 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 37% | TSV Hartberg 29%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | TSV Hartberg 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

TSV Hartberg lead the H2H ledger, but FC BW Linz carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 50% | TSV Hartberg 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights