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Shock result as Sturm Graz defy the odds to beat FC BW Linz 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat FC BW Linz 0-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Championship Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.83 xG and Sturm Graz 1.35 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC BW Linz fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 26%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 52%, Sturm Graz 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights