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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SCR Altach cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC BW Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach beat FC BW Linz 1-3 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.52 xG and SCR Altach 0.84 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against SCR Altach attack 0.77 / defence 1.12, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 51% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 18%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a SCR Altach win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 47%, SCR Altach 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

SCR Altach's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.14 PPG, SCR Altach 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights