FC BW Linz 1-3 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC BW Linz (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC BW Linz face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hofmann Personal Stadion plays host to FC BW Linz versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC BW Linz have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC BW Linz have posted 6W 0D 4L at Hofmann Personal Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — FC BW Linz are significantly better at Hofmann Personal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SCR Altach (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in FC BW Linz's favour (1.10 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC BW Linz, 0 for SCR Altach and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with FC BW Linz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 51% versus SCR Altach 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 47% | SCR Altach 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.52 xG and SCR Altach 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.963 / defence 0.913 | SCR Altach attack 0.772 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.188. Data: 39 FC BW Linz games / 39 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 51% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 18%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | SCR Altach 5.56. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC BW Linz at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC BW Linz 50% | SCR Altach 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 51% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG FC BW Linz 1.52 / SCR Altach 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.963 / def 0.913 | SCR Altach attack 0.772 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.84
SCR Altach xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach kick off?
FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
FC BW Linz 1 - 3 SCR Altach.
Where is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach part of?
FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 51% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC BW Linz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
Record (5 meetings): FC BW Linz 2W | Draws 3 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.77x) against FC BW Linz's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
51%
1.97
31%
3.23
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.36
0.84
SCR Altach xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
4%
25.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 0.84 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 14W 14D 21L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach's form line: 8W 17D 24L from 49 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for FC BW Linz against 0.84 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 4W 7D 13L from 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC BW Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.84 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 14W 14D 21L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 8W 17D 24L in their last 49 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or SCR Altach away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.46 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.79 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 3-0 on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
3
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 4, SCR Altach have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
FC BW Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 50%, SCR Altach 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC BW Linz) and 46% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; SCR Altach in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 46% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 46% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC BW Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat FC BW Linz 1-3 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.52 xG and SCR Altach 0.84 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against SCR Altach attack 0.77 / defence 1.12, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 51% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 18%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a SCR Altach win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 47%, SCR Altach 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
SCR Altach's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.14 PPG, SCR Altach 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.