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Ried cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC BW Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ried beat FC BW Linz 0-2 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.37 xG and Ried 0.85 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC BW Linz fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ried outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Ried attack 0.72 / defence 1.08, drawn from 25/3 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 49% | Draw 29% | Ried 23%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Ried win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 33%, Ried 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ried's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 0.00 PPG, Ried 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights