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Dominant Grazer AK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC BW Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK beat FC BW Linz 0-3 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Group - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.53 xG and Grazer AK 1.17 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC BW Linz fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Grazer AK outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Grazer AK attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 45% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 28%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Grazer AK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 54%, Grazer AK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Grazer AK's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.06 PPG, Grazer AK 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights