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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out Sturm Graz 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat Sturm Graz 2-1 at Generali Arena, Championship Round - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.72 xG and Sturm Graz 1.06 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.82 against Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 50% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 21%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 48%, Sturm Graz 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.76 PPG, Sturm Graz 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights