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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna finished level at 1-1 at Generali Arena, Championship Group - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.44 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.03 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 46% | Draw 28% | Rapid Vienna 26%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 58%, Rapid Vienna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.74 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights