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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Austria Vienna and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Austria Vienna and Lask Linz drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.31 xG and Lask Linz 1.19 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Lask Linz attack 1.09 / defence 0.95, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 39% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 34%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 58%, Lask Linz 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Lask Linz's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.77 PPG, Lask Linz 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights