Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau host TSV Hartberg at Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 December 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Lustenau — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's home record at Planet Pure Stadion: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Austria Lustenau are significantly better at Planet Pure Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour TSV Hartberg — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Austria Lustenau have won 3, TSV Hartberg 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 3–4 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Lustenau 73% and TSV Hartberg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Lustenau 73% | TSV Hartberg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.03 xG and TSV Hartberg 2.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.698 / defence 1.376 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.286 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.378. Austria Lustenau's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. TSV Hartberg have an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — the away xG of 2.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Austria Lustenau games / 33 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 12% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 66%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 8.33 | Draw 4.55 | TSV Hartberg 1.52. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.03 / 2.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. This conflicts with form data: Austria Lustenau 40% | TSV Hartberg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 12% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.03 / TSV Hartberg 2.44 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.698 / def 1.376 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.286 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
2.44
TSV Hartberg xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 18:30 on Friday 11 December 2026 at Planet Pure Stadion.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 12% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 66% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Record (7 meetings): Austria Lustenau 3W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 2W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Austria Lustenau's attack rating (0.70) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 2.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.3%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
12%
8.47
22%
4.51
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.47
2.44
TSV Hartberg xG
8.47
12%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
9%
11.46
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
1%
97.13
24%
4.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 2.44 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 2D 7L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Austria Lustenau are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.64 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.82 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.40 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
TSV Hartberg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2023, when Austria Lustenau won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
2
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
From 7 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when TSV Hartberg 4-3 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 40%, TSV Hartberg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Austria Lustenau and 80% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 60% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 80% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.