Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Red Bull Salzburg (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Austria Lustenau face Red Bull Salzburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Planet Pure Stadion plays host to Austria Lustenau versus Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 23 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Lustenau have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at Planet Pure Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Austria Lustenau are significantly better at Planet Pure Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Red Bull Salzburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Red Bull Salzburg arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Red Bull Salzburg hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2026, ended 1–5 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 5.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Austria Lustenau half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Red Bull Salzburg half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Lustenau 73% and Red Bull Salzburg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Lustenau 73% | Red Bull Salzburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 0.84 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.699 / defence 1.374 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.066 / defence 0.692. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.378. Austria Lustenau's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.692 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 Austria Lustenau games / 33 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 12% | Draw 26% | Red Bull Salzburg 62%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 8.33 | Draw 3.85 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 40% | Red Bull Salzburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 12% | Draw 26% | Red Bull Salzburg 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Austria Lustenau 0.84 / Red Bull Salzburg 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.699 / def 1.374 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.066 / def 0.692 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Red Bull Salzburg xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Planet Pure Stadion.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 12% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 62% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (5 meetings): Austria Lustenau 0W | Draws 0 | Red Bull Salzburg 5W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Lustenau's attack rating (0.70) and Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.07x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from 11/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
12%
8.50
26%
3.81
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.85
2.02
Red Bull Salzburg xG
8.50
12%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
13%
7.52
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
2%
63.97
27%
3.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 2.02 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Lustenau's recent record stands at 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 0L across 11 games — 2.45 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 1.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Austria Lustenau heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Austria Lustenau have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Austria Lustenau are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 2W 3D 0L across 5 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Red Bull Salzburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.64 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.64 scored and 0.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 8W 3D 0L in their last 11 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.40 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Austria Lustenau or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Lustenau have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Red Bull Salzburg go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 7-0 on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Austria Lustenau
0
Draws
5
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 5 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 40%, Red Bull Salzburg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Austria Lustenau) and 40% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 40%; Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 60% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Austria Lustenau's recent games and 40% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.