Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Planet Pure Stadion to face Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Lustenau (all games): 2W 2D 5L across 9 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.89 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 2.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.11 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at Planet Pure Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.89 — Austria Lustenau are significantly better at Planet Pure Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.89 for Austria Lustenau, 0.70 for Austria Vienna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Austria Lustenau 2W, Austria Vienna 4W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with Austria Vienna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Austria Lustenau half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 67% versus Austria Vienna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 67% | Austria Vienna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.41 xG and Austria Vienna 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.672 / defence 1.406 | Austria Vienna attack 1.103 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Austria Lustenau's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Austria Lustenau games / 31 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 24% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 50%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Vienna 2.00. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Austria Lustenau 40% | Austria Vienna 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 24% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.41 / Austria Vienna 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.672 / def 1.406 | Austria Vienna attack 1.103 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Austria Vienna xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Planet Pure Stadion.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 24% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna?
Record (9 meetings): Austria Lustenau 2W | Draws 3 | Austria Vienna 4W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Austria Lustenau's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.10x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from 9/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
24%
4.12
26%
3.82
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 1
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.43
2.02
Austria Vienna xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
13%
7.56
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
3%
31.15
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 2.02 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Austria Lustenau have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 2W 2D 5L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna's form line: 2W 1D 6L from 9 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Austria Lustenau against 0.78 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Lustenau have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Austria Lustenau are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Lustenau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.40 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Austria Vienna won 5-0 on 11 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Austria Lustenau
3
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna?
From 9 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Austria Vienna 2-1 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 40%, Austria Vienna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Austria Lustenau and 80% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 60% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 80% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.