Austria Klagenfurt 2-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt host TSV Hartberg at 28 Black Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at 28 Black Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Austria Klagenfurt 1.30 PPG, TSV Hartberg 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Austria Klagenfurt hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for TSV Hartberg, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Austria Klagenfurt and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Austria Klagenfurt in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Klagenfurt 55% versus TSV Hartberg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 61% | TSV Hartberg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.40 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.989 / defence 1.034 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.115 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Austria Klagenfurt games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 41% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 30%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 50% | TSV Hartberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 41% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.40 / TSV Hartberg 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.989 / def 1.034 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.115 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.17
TSV Hartberg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Klagenfurt 2 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 41% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
Record (4 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 3W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Klagenfurt's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Klagenfurt's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.44
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.56
1.17
TSV Hartberg xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
7%
13.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.17 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Klagenfurt come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 15D 22L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.20 PPG from 56 outings (18W 13D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Klagenfurt on 1.29 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Austria Klagenfurt's home form reads 8W 9D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.30 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 19W 15D 22L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 13D 25L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.18 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Klagenfurt's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Klagenfurt
4
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 50%, TSV Hartberg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 61% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent matches and 54% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 61% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 28 Black Arena, Championship Round - 3, as Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.40 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.17 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 41% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 30%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 61%, TSV Hartberg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.29 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.