Austria Klagenfurt 0-0 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 4 sees Grazer AK travel to 28 Black Arena to take on Austria Klagenfurt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt at 28 Black Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grazer AK stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Grazer AK have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Austria Klagenfurt 0.90 PPG, Grazer AK 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Austria Klagenfurt, 0 for Grazer AK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 4–2 with Austria Klagenfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 56% and Grazer AK 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 64% | Grazer AK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 2.04 xG and Grazer AK 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.967 / defence 1.165 | Grazer AK attack 0.931 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Grazer AK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Austria Klagenfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Austria Klagenfurt games / 22 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 52% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 22%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Grazer AK 4.55. Austria Klagenfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Klagenfurt at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 70% | Grazer AK 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 52% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 2.04 / Grazer AK 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.967 / def 1.165 | Grazer AK attack 0.931 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Grazer AK xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK?
Austria Klagenfurt 0 - 0 Grazer AK.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 52% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Grazer AK?
Record (2 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 2W | Draws 0 | Grazer AK 0W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Grazer AK in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Grazer AK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Austria Klagenfurt's attack at 0.97x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grazer AK's attack versus Austria Klagenfurt's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.87
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
3.35
1.30
Grazer AK xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
13%
7.72
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
3%
35.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.30 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Klagenfurt come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 6D 13L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grazer AK sit at 0.80 PPG from 25 outings (4W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Klagenfurt on 0.96 PPG, Grazer AK on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Austria Klagenfurt's home form reads 3W 4D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Grazer AK have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.12 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 games (0.96 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 4W 8D 13L in their last 25 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Grazer AK away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.08 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt's record when hosting Grazer AK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Austria Klagenfurt
2
Draws
0
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Grazer AK?
From 4 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 2, Grazer AK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Grazer AK 1-1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Grazer AK?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Austria Klagenfurt at 67%, Grazer AK at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Austria Klagenfurt and 67% for Grazer AK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 33% of games; Grazer AK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Grazer AK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 67% of Grazer AK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 67% of Grazer AK's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Grazer AK tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Austria Klagenfurt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 28 Black Arena, Relegation Round - 4, as Austria Klagenfurt and Grazer AK drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 2.04 xG and Grazer AK 1.30 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Grazer AK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.97 / defence 1.17 against Grazer AK attack 0.93 / defence 1.32, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 52% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 22%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 64%, Grazer AK 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grazer AK's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 0.96 PPG, Grazer AK 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.