Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Ruh Lviv travel to Stadion Kolos to take on Kolos Kovalivka. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kolos Kovalivka stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka at Stadion Kolos this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Kolos. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kolos Kovalivka 1.50 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Kolos Kovalivka, 0 for Ruh Lviv and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kolos Kovalivka trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 26% versus Ruh Lviv 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 23% | Ruh Lviv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.99 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.879 / defence 0.826 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.077 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.251. Data: 47 Kolos Kovalivka games / 48 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 34% | Ruh Lviv 36%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Ruh Lviv 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kolos Kovalivka 10% | Ruh Lviv 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 34% | Ruh Lviv 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.99 / Ruh Lviv 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.879 / def 0.826 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.077 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ruh Lviv xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 30% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv?
Record (4 meetings): Kolos Kovalivka 2W | Draws 2 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kolos Kovalivka's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
30%
3.33
34%
2.98
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.10
1.11
Ruh Lviv xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.6 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.11 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Kolos Kovalivka have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 15W 15D 17L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 13W 20D 14L from 47 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kolos Kovalivka on 1.28 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 7W 6D 10L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.19 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 15W 15D 17L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 13W 20D 14L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Kolos Kovalivka's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.30 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
4
Draws
3
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv?
From 9 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Ruh Lviv have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kolos Kovalivka 22% BTTS, Ruh Lviv 48%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Kolos Kovalivka) and 48% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 44% of games; Ruh Lviv in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 48% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 48% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out Kolos Kovalivka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.99 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.11 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kolos Kovalivka fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.88 / defence 0.83 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.08 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 34% | Ruh Lviv 36%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 23%, Ruh Lviv 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.28 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.