Ruh Lviv 1-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Ruh Lviv take on Polessya.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Polessya make the trip to Arena Lviv to face Ruh Lviv in Premier League (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Ruh Lviv (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 7D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Polessya's record over their last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Polessya have posted 5W 2D 2L from their last 9 away outings — 1.89 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 9 away games (67%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Polessya are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Ruh Lviv, 0 for Polessya and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Ruh Lviv 1–0 Polessya — a Ruh Lviv win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (last 17 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Polessya half-time and goal-timing data (last 17 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 65% versus Polessya 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 41% | Polessya 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.95 xG and Polessya 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.970 / defence 0.939 | Polessya attack 0.872 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.299. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 47 games and Polessya's last 17.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 29% | Draw 36% | Polessya 35%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.43 | Draw 2.78 | Polessya 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ruh Lviv's last 10 home games and Polessya's last 9 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 60% (last 10 home games) | Polessya 22% (last 9 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 29% | Draw 36% | Polessya 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Ruh Lviv 0.95 / Polessya 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.970 / def 0.939 | Polessya attack 0.872 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Polessya xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Polessya FAQs
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Polessya kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Polessya kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 Polessya.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Polessya part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Polessya is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 29% chance of winning, Polessya a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Polessya will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.97) and Polessya's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Polessya's attack (0.87x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Ruh Lviv's last 47 games and Polessya's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.43
36%
2.78
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.02
1.06
Polessya xG
3.43
29%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Polessya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.06 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 6W 8D 3L from 17 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 3L across 17 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 1.88 for Polessya. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 2W 6D 1L from their last 9 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Polessya's away record stands at 5W 2D 2L across their last 9 away games, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.41 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ruh Lviv have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Polessya in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Polessya
Blended
Ruh Lviv (Home) vs Polessya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Polessya Form FAQs
What form are Ruh Lviv and Polessya in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 6W 8D 3L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while Polessya have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.33 PPG; Polessya away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Polessya in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Ruh Lviv and Polessya, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 24 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Polessya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
1
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Polessya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Polessya?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Polessya have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Polessya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 May 2026: Polessya 2-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Polessya?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Polessya see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 67%, Polessya 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ruh Lviv) and 44% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Polessya in 67%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 33% of games; Polessya in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Polessya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruh Lviv and Polessya matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 22% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruh Lviv and Polessya matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 44% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Polessya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 44% of Polessya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Polessya share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 18, as Ruh Lviv and Polessya drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.95 xG and Polessya 1.06 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Polessya attack 0.87 / defence 0.88, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 29% | Draw 36% | Polessya 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 41%, Polessya 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Polessya's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.53 PPG, Polessya 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.