Polessya 1-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Polessya vs Dnipro-1 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Polessya host Dnipro-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Polessya — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Polessya have gone 4W 2D 1L this season (7 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dnipro-1 stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dnipro-1 — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Polessya have won 0, Dnipro-1 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Polessya in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Dnipro-1 in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 44% versus Dnipro-1 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 44% | Dnipro-1 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.13 xG and Dnipro-1 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.058 / defence 1.029 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.217 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.219. Dnipro-1 have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 Polessya games / 46 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 26% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 45%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Dnipro-1 2.22. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Polessya 71% | Dnipro-1 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 26% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Polessya 1.13 / Dnipro-1 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.058 / def 1.029 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.217 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Dnipro-1 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Polessya vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 8 December 2023 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Dnipro-1?
Polessya 1 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is Polessya vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Polessya vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 26% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Polessya and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Dnipro-1?
Record (1 meetings): Polessya 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are Polessya and Dnipro-1 in?
Polessya (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.06) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
26%
3.78
29%
3.48
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.66
1.53
Dnipro-1 xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
17.38
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Polessya and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Polessya and 1.53 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Polessya have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 9W 4D 3L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1's form line: 10W 3D 3L from 16 games, 2.06 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Polessya on 1.94 PPG, Dnipro-1 on 2.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Polessya have posted 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 5W 1D 1L from 7 away games — 2.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Polessya are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.56 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 games (1.94 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 10W 3D 3L in their last 16 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 2.00 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Polessya or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Polessya
1
Draws
1
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Dnipro-1?
From 2 meetings on record, Polessya have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2023, when Polessya 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Polessya see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 71%, Dnipro-1 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Polessya) and 43% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Dnipro-1?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Polessya's games and 43% of Dnipro-1's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Polessya vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Polessya's recent games and 43% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya and Dnipro-1 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as Polessya and Dnipro-1 drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.13 xG and Dnipro-1 1.53 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.22 / defence 0.94, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 26% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 45%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 44%, Dnipro-1 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Polessya 1.94 PPG, Dnipro-1 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.