FC Kharkiv 0-3 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Kharkiv face Oleksandria.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Oleksandria travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on FC Kharkiv in Premier League (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Monday 11 December 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Kharkiv have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC Kharkiv have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Oleksandria — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Oleksandria's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (FC Kharkiv) versus 0.60 (Oleksandria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, FC Kharkiv have won 0, Oleksandria 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended FC Kharkiv 0–1 Oleksandria — a Oleksandria win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Kharkiv trading profile (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Oleksandria trading profile (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 40% versus Oleksandria 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 42% | Oleksandria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.10 xG and Oleksandria 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.982 / defence 1.002 | Oleksandria attack 0.721 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.192. Oleksandria's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 46 games and Oleksandria's last 45.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 39% | Draw 35% | Oleksandria 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.57 | Draw 2.86 | Oleksandria 3.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Kharkiv's last 10 home games and Oleksandria's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 50% (last 10 home games) | Oleksandria 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Monday 11 December 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 39% | Draw 35% | Oleksandria 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG FC Kharkiv 1.10 / Oleksandria 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.982 / def 1.002 | Oleksandria attack 0.721 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Oleksandria xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria FAQs
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Monday 11 December 2023 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 3 Oleksandria.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 39% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.98) and Oleksandria's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Kharkiv's last 46 games and Oleksandria's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
39%
2.57
35%
2.86
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.97
0.86
Oleksandria xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.86 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 45 games, going 10W 16D 19L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.27 PPG from 45 outings (13W 18D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.02 PPG, Oleksandria on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across their last 21 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 21 away games (3W 10D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.13 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
FC Kharkiv (Home) vs Oleksandria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria Form FAQs
What form are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 16D 19L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 13W 18D 14L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Oleksandria away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.29 PPG; Oleksandria away: 0.90 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Kharkiv have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Dec 2023, when Oleksandria won FC Kharkiv 0-3 Oleksandria.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
3
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Oleksandria have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: FC Kharkiv 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 43%, Oleksandria 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Kharkiv) and 43% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Oleksandria in 38%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 43% of games; Oleksandria in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 52% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 43% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Oleksandria run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat FC Kharkiv 0-3 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.10 xG and Oleksandria 0.86 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Oleksandria outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Oleksandria attack 0.72 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 39% | Draw 35% | Oleksandria 26%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Oleksandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 42%, Oleksandria 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.02 PPG, Oleksandria 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.