Kryvbas KR 2-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva plays host to Kryvbas KR versus Oleksandria in Premier League (matchday 16). Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Kryvbas KR have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Oleksandria (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Oleksandria have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Kryvbas KR's favour (2.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Kryvbas KR's last 10 home games and Oleksandria's last 10 away games) — Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Oleksandria in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Kryvbas KR, 2 for Oleksandria and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended Kryvbas KR 0–1 Oleksandria — a Oleksandria win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 36% versus Oleksandria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 41% | Oleksandria 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.17 xG and Oleksandria 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.122 / defence 0.932 | Oleksandria attack 0.695 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.198. Oleksandria's attack rating of 0.695 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 45 games and Oleksandria's last 44.

Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 44% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 23%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.28 | Draw 3.01 | Oleksandria 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Kryvbas KR are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kryvbas KR's last 10 home games and Oleksandria's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 30% (last 10 home games) | Oleksandria 30% (last 10 away games).

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