Chornomorets 0-1 Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Desna at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chornomorets face Desna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Desna travel to Stadion Chornomorets to take on Chornomorets in Premier League (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Chornomorets — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Chornomorets at home: 1W 3D 4L from their last 8 home games — 0.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Desna have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Desna's away record over their last 7 away games: 2W 2D 3L (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chornomorets 0.80 PPG, Desna 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Chornomorets, 1 for Desna and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Jul 2021, ended Chornomorets 0–3 Desna — a Desna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Desna in-play tendencies (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 60% versus Desna 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 73% | Desna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.40 xG and Desna 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.988 / defence 1.817 | Desna attack 0.794 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.239. Desna's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chornomorets's projected output up. Desna's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.79. Chornomorets's defence rating of 1.817 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Desna's projected output up. Data: built from Chornomorets's last 15 games and Desna's last 15.
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 30% | Draw 24% | Desna 46%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.34 | Draw 4.19 | Desna 2.16. Desna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.79) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Desna as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Desna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chornomorets's last 8 home games and Desna's last 7 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Chornomorets 62% (last 8 home games) | Desna 43% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 30% | Draw 24% | Desna 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Chornomorets 1.40 / Desna 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.988 / def 1.817 | Desna attack 0.794 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Desna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Desna xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chornomorets vs Desna FAQs
What time does Chornomorets vs Desna kick off?
Chornomorets vs Desna kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Desna?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Desna.
Where is Chornomorets vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Desna part of?
Chornomorets vs Desna is a Premier League fixture (matchday 16) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 30% chance of winning, Desna a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Chornomorets and Desna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chornomorets vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.99x the league average against Desna's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Desna's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chornomorets's last 15 games and Desna's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
30%
3.34
24%
4.19
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
3.19
1.79
Desna xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
17%
5.98
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
5%
19.99
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chornomorets vs Desna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.79 for Desna, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Desna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 5D 8L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Desna sit at 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Desna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chornomorets's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across their last 7 home games, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Desna have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 7 away games (2W 2D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.13 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Desna
Blended
Chornomorets (Home) vs Desna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chornomorets
Blended
Desna
Blended
❓ Chornomorets vs Desna Form FAQs
What form are Chornomorets and Desna in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Desna have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Desna away?
Desna's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.86 PPG; Desna away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Desna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Desna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 27 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
0
Draws
2
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Chornomorets vs Desna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Desna?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Chornomorets have won 0, Desna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Desna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 November 2021: Chornomorets 0-1 Desna.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Desna?
Desna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Desna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 71%, Desna 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Chornomorets) and 57% (Desna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 29% of games; Desna in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chornomorets vs Desna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chornomorets and Desna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Chornomorets's games and 43% of Desna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chornomorets and Desna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Chornomorets's matches and 57% of Desna's.
Do Chornomorets and Desna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 57% of Desna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Desna edge out Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Desna beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.40 xG and Desna 1.79 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.99 / defence 1.82 against Desna attack 0.79 / defence 1.31, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 30% | Draw 24% | Desna 46%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 73%, Desna 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Desna's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line. Desna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.