Desna 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Desna at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Desna host Kolos Kovalivka at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Desna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Desna's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 2L across 7 games at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv this term (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Desna are significantly better at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv than their overall form suggests.
Kolos Kovalivka — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Desna) versus 0.60 (Kolos Kovalivka). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Desna in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Desna 46% versus Kolos Kovalivka 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Desna 54% | Kolos Kovalivka 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Desna 1.37 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Desna attack 0.926 / defence 1.240 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.655 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.260. Kolos Kovalivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Desna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Desna games / 13 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Desna 44% | Draw 30% | Kolos Kovalivka 27%. Fair-value odds: Desna 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Kolos Kovalivka 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Desna at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Desna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Desna 43% | Kolos Kovalivka 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Desna 44% | Draw 30% | Kolos Kovalivka 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Desna 1.37 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Desna attack 0.926 / def 1.240 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.655 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Desna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Desna xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Kolos Kovalivka xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What was the final score in Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Desna 0 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What competition is Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Desna a 44% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Desna and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Kolos Kovalivka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Desna and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Desna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Desna's attack rating (0.93) and Kolos Kovalivka's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kolos Kovalivka's attack versus Desna's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
44%
2.30
30%
3.38
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Desna xG
Total xG
2.39
1.02
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
7%
14.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Desna and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Desna and 1.02 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Desna have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 5W 3D 5L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kolos Kovalivka's form line: 3W 2D 8L from 13 games, 0.85 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Desna are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kolos Kovalivka.
Venue Form
On home soil, Desna have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Desna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Desna are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.62 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Desna
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Desna and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Desna have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Desna at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Desna's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Desna at home: 1.40 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Desna or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Desna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Desna
0
Draws
1
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 1 meetings on record, Desna have won 0, Kolos Kovalivka have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Desna and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2021, when Desna 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Desna and Kolos Kovalivka?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Desna 60% BTTS, Kolos Kovalivka 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Desna) and 20% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka in 40%; Kolos Kovalivka in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Desna home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Desna play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Desna's recent matches and 0% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Desna vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Desna's recent games and 20% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Desna and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Desna have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kolos Kovalivka defy the odds to beat Desna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Desna 0-1 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Desna 1.37 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.02 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Desna fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Desna attack 0.93 / defence 1.24 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.66 / defence 1.32, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Desna 44% | Draw 30% | Kolos Kovalivka 27%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Kolos Kovalivka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Desna 54%, Kolos Kovalivka 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Desna's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Kolos Kovalivka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Desna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.