Dnipro-1 5-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava meet at Dnipro Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 at Dnipro Arena this season: 6W 0D 1L from 7 home games — 2.57 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dnipro Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vorskla Poltava have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dnipro-1, 0 for Vorskla Poltava and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (15 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (15 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 33% versus Vorskla Poltava 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 53% | Vorskla Poltava 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.34 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.283 / defence 1.021 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.984 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.230. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 15 Dnipro-1 games / 15 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 39% | Draw 26% | Vorskla Poltava 34%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Vorskla Poltava 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Dnipro-1 29% | Vorskla Poltava 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 39% | Draw 26% | Vorskla Poltava 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Dnipro-1 1.34 / Vorskla Poltava 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.283 / def 1.021 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.984 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Vorskla Poltava xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Dnipro-1 5 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 39% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): Dnipro-1 0W | Draws 1 | Vorskla Poltava 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dnipro-1's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.98x) against Dnipro-1's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.77
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.57
1.24
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.24 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 10W 1D 4L from 15 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 2L across 15 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.07 PPG for Dnipro-1 against 2.07 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dnipro-1 have managed 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.87 scored and 0.80 conceded. Vorskla Poltava's attacking output running into Dnipro-1's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Vorskla Poltava in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 10W 1D 4L in their last 15 games (2.07 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 4D 2L in their last 15 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.40 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won 5-1 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dnipro-1
2
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava?
From 6 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Dnipro-1 1-2 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 20%, Vorskla Poltava 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Dnipro-1) and 40% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 60% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 40% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dnipro-1 run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Vorskla Poltava 5-1 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.34 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.24 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Dnipro-1 beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.28 / defence 1.02 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 39% | Draw 26% | Vorskla Poltava 34%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 53%, Vorskla Poltava 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (15 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (15 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dnipro-1 2.07 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dnipro-1 win broke the near-deadlock. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.