Lamphun Warrior 2-0 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamphun Warrior face Nakhon Pathom.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom meet at Mae Guang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Lamphun Warrior's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lamphun Warrior's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Pathom (all games): 3W 2D 3L across their last 8 — 1.38 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings (12%). Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.38 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Nakhon Pathom's last 4 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 75% of Nakhon Pathom's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Nakhon Pathom — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 50% and Nakhon Pathom 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lamphun Warrior 62% | Nakhon Pathom 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.91 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.864 / defence 1.036 | Nakhon Pathom attack 1.053 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.269. Nakhon Pathom's defence rating of 1.283 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamphun Warrior's projected output up. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 38 games and Nakhon Pathom's last 8.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 27%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.05 | Draw 4.14 | Nakhon Pathom 3.70. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.91 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Nakhon Pathom's last 4 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 70% (last 10 home games) | Nakhon Pathom 75% (last 4 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.91 / Nakhon Pathom 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.864 / def 1.036 | Nakhon Pathom attack 1.053 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Nakhon Pathom xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom FAQs
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 0 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 9) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 49% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (1.05x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Lamphun Warrior's last 38 games and Nakhon Pathom's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.14
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.29
1.38
Nakhon Pathom xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
4%
24.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.38 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 1D 6L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Nakhon Pathom sit at 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Nakhon Pathom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across their last 4 home games, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nakhon Pathom have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 4 away games (1W 1D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 88%.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Lamphun Warrior (Home) vs Nakhon Pathom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom Form FAQs
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.00 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lamphun Warrior won Nakhon Pathom 0-3 Lamphun Warrior on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
1
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2025: Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Lamphun Warrior, 75% for Nakhon Pathom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Lamphun Warrior and 75% for Nakhon Pathom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 75% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 75% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 50% of Nakhon Pathom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Nakhon Pathom 2-0 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.91 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.38 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Nakhon Pathom attack 1.05 / defence 1.28, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 27%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 62%, Nakhon Pathom 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Pathom arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Lamphun Warrior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.