Nakhon Pathom 2-2 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Pathom host Sukhothai FC at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Nakhon Pathom — All Games: 3W 2D 4L from 9 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.22 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 1D 1L this season (4 games, 1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.22 — Nakhon Pathom are significantly better at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Sukhothai FC have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Nakhon Pathom are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.52 PPG ahead (1.22 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nakhon Pathom register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Pathom in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 78% and Sukhothai FC 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Nakhon Pathom 78% | Sukhothai FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.98 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 1.021 / defence 1.224 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.935 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.231. Data: 9 Nakhon Pathom games / 38 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 50% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Sukhothai FC 3.70. Nakhon Pathom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Pathom are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 100% | Sukhothai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 50% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.98 / Sukhothai FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 1.021 / def 1.224 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.935 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Sukhothai FC xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC?
Nakhon Pathom 2 - 2 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 50% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nakhon Pathom's attack at 1.02x the league average against Sukhothai FC's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.31
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
3.39
1.41
Sukhothai FC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
4%
27.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.41 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Nakhon Pathom have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 3W 2D 4L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sukhothai FC's form line: 2W 1D 6L from 9 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nakhon Pathom are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Nakhon Pathom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Pathom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.78 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.75 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nakhon Pathom's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
2
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Sukhothai FC 0-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nakhon Pathom at 100%, Sukhothai FC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Nakhon Pathom and 100% for Sukhothai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 75% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 100% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Nakhon Pathom and Sukhothai FC drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.98 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.41 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 1.02 / defence 1.22 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 9/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 50% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 27%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 78%, Sukhothai FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Pathom arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.